3rd Wave of Corona Inevitable

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After failing to prepare sufficiently for the 2nd wave of COVID -19 conditions. Health officials are now regularly warning people of the chances of the third wave. Earlier this month, Principal Scientific Advisor K Vijay Raghavan called the 3rd wave of corona inevitable. But its timing is impossible to expect. Vijay Raghavan issued a warning two days later, and said a 3rd wave could be avoided through “robust measures”. But many others have added the same warnings over the past few weeks. Some hospitals and local administrations have started improving their infrastructure in expectation of a fresh wave in terms after some months.

How Would One Identify the Third Wave

The 3rd wave recently under consideration refers to a possible surge in terms nationally. The national curve sounds to have now entered a declining stage, having peaked on 6 May. In the previous two weeks, the number of regular cases fell from a peak of 4.14 lakh to around 2.6 lakh, while active cases have come down to 32.25 lakh, after reaching a higher of 37.45 lakh. If present trends continue, this is expected by July. India will touch the same level as the number of cases in February. If there is a fresh boom after and continues for some weeks or months, this will be categorized as a 3rd wave of Covid.

In the meantime, states may continue to experience a local boom. As is happening in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu now. Or, more locally, in Sangli, Amravati, and some other districts of Maharashtra. But unless they aren’t powerful enough to alter the path of the national turn, they will not be defined as a 3rd wave. In addition, the more localized the boom, the faster this is likely to end; however, cities like Pune and Mumbai have undertaken booms for longer.

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Is the Third Wave going to be stronger? 

The third wave of COVID-19 is rumored to be even stronger and faster than the second. Although, it can’t be anticipated in advance. Generally, this requires that each fresh wave will be more vulnerable as compared to the last wave. It is as if the virus, when it merges, has a relatively free distribution, given that the whole population is exposed. Throughout its following, the number of exposed people will be much smaller as a few of them will have acquired immunity.

However, this argument has been reversed in the case of India. After mid-September previous year, when the number of cases started declining, only a very small part of the population was infected. Since such a huge portion of the population was still infected, the disease was not likely to slow down. The reasons for the 5-month consecutive months of decline in cases in India are yet not well understood.

Since the second wave was anticipated to be more vulnerable than the first, many considered the pandemic was about to end. After painful lessons learned, there is now speculation that the 3rd wave may even be stronger.

Is it inevitable, though? 

A 3rd is another possibility. This is likely to come, however, the timing or scale isn’t something that can be predicted. But this is not inevitable. As cited, Vijay Raghavan, also revised his remarks, to clarify that this could perhaps be avoided if people persist to take robust measures. This is also possible that this time, the fresh wave would actually be much smaller as compared to the last wave, hence it causes much less pain and can be maintained more efficiently.

A 3rd is another possibility. This is likely to come; however, the timing or scale isn’t something that can be predicted. But this is not inevitable. As cited, Vijay Raghavan, also revised his remarks, to clarify that this could perhaps be avoided if people persist in taking robust measures. This is also possible that this time, the fresh wave would actually be much smaller as compared to the last wave; hence it causes much less pain and can be maintained more efficiently.

How people respond to these warnings will determine a lot. They may be paranoid about an impending disaster, or benumbed by repeated warnings. In a situation like this, it is distant more useful to be paranoid and careful than optimistic.

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